The long-term trend of soybeans in 2009 is hardly optimistic

The end of the soybean market in 2008 began with the bull market in 2006. Looking ahead to 2009, the market situation is still difficult to be optimistic. Due to the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the trend of the commodity market is closely related to the economic situation. Although countries continue to increase their efforts to rescue the market, the global economic situation is still relatively pessimistic. Major economies have entered a recession, and the growth rate of emerging economies has slowed down. It is expected that the world economic situation will improve in the second half of 2009. In the macro context of economic recession, it is difficult for the soybean market to perform well.

In addition, the economic recession has slowed down the demand for crude oil. Although OPEC has increased its production cuts, oil prices are still in a downward trend. In 2009, the crude oil market price will continue to operate at a low level, which will also limit the trend of the soybean market. At the same time, the US dollar is still above the 80 level, and there is no room for interest rate cuts in the United States. The momentum for the US dollar to continue to decline is insufficient. If the US dollar continues to operate at a high level, it cannot provide support for the rise in commodity prices.

The macroeconomic situation and surrounding markets have not been favorable for the trend of soybeans, and the supply and demand pattern of the soybean market itself lacks favorable news. On the one hand, due to the continuous decline in corn prices and the high cost of corn cultivation, soybean cultivation is more profitable than corn. It is expected that the soybean cultivation area in the United States will increase in 2009, and the market supply will also rise. According to analysis firm Informa, the soybean planting area in the United States in 2009 was 81.46 million acres, an increase of 7.35% from 75.88 million acres in 2008; On the other hand, the demand for food in the soybean market is relatively rigid, but industrial demand is greatly affected by the economy. The decline in crude oil prices has led to a slowdown in industrial demand, affecting global soybean demand and also unfavorable for price trends.

Since 2008, the government has successively introduced measures to regulate the market in order to stabilize market prices. From adjusting soybean import and export tariffs to increasing national reserves, the country has taken multiple measures simultaneously. The import dependence of the domestic soybean market is as high as 70%. The adjustment of domestic policies will not change the global soybean supply and demand pattern, nor can it block the impact of the international market on the domestic market. However, with the strengthening of national regulation, we must also pay attention to the "Chinese factor" when analyzing the trend of the soybean market. Due to the country's increased efforts in domestic soybean storage, the demand for low-priced imported soybeans in the domestic market has increased, stimulating the demand for soybean exports from the United States and supporting the trend of the Chicago soybean market. Strengthening the regulation of the soybean market by the government will limit the range of price fluctuations and lead to a certain degree of differentiation in the domestic and international soybean market trends. However, in the context of a pessimistic economic situation and a trend towards loose market supply and demand, the soybean market in 2009 still did not perform well, and prices will fluctuate around the cost line.